Are we headed for a recession? And while I'm thinking about it, does anyone in my generation remember what that is?
It's negative economic growth, like a mini-depression. People stop buying stuff because they are worried they won't have money in the future to buy stuff. So, in turn, businesses need to make less stuff. And so they need fewer people to make less stuff. And finally, people lose their jobs, and really don't have any money to buy stuff.
An investment banker in Pittsburgh says he thinks he has two great indicators of whether that scenario is coming. One is Winnebago, the iconic RV maker.
And while I'm saying the word "iconic," you can probably guess what his other canary in the coal mine is. Harley-Davidson.
According to Ron Muhlenkamp, if those two companies start doing poorly, the rest of the economy is headed their way.
The reason? Their products are large purchases that people really don't need. They want, and when people stop buying what they want, that means they are worried about money, he contends.
Harley, if you follow our newspaper, hasn't been doing the best. Especially here in the United States. Anyone worried? Or doesn't Mr. Muhlenkamp's logic make sense?
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