Consumer issues: October 2007 Archives

OK, so it's no surprise that experts say we will run out of cheap oil within a few decades. That's been predicted before. Or that our foreign oil dependence puts us at the mercy of the members of OPEC, and a good number of the citizens of its member states would love to wipe us off the face of the earth.

But this? It basically says everything we knew about oil politics is turned on its head. High prices aren't a result of angry Arab nations, they are a result of our successful economy, which consumes more oil and drives up prices. Translation? Any time happy days are here again, we still won't be able to afford to drive anywhere, unless we are rich enough not to flinch at $3 gasoline.

Cheap oil prices, translating into cheap gasoline, will only then happen when the economy slumps. So if you want cheap gasoline, wait til you lose your job, then gas will be cheap enough to buy.

My head hurts. What do you think?

Ford or Chevy. Yankees or Red Sox. Winchester or Remington.

Full disclosure: I say Chevy because my family has bought cars at our local Chevy dealer for the better part of a century, although I have no love for either; I'm an O's fan, so I only say Red Sox because I hate the Yankees more.

But with Winchester and Remington, my vote goes whole-heartedly to the latter, especially in one of the specifically Pennsylvania-flavored aspects of the debate. Which is the best bolt-action deer rifle: the Winchester Model 70 or the Remington Model 700?

My passion nowadays for deer hunting is with a bow and arrow. But every deer I've taken in the past with a rifle as fallen due to a Remington 700 chambered in .308. I laud its merits whenever the debate comes up.

But lately, it's been a little empty. The Model 70 went the way of the dodo last year, and it's kind of like if Steinbrenner did away with the Yankees: Liking the Red Sox wouldn't be half as much fun.

Thankfully, for bar room or camp banter, the Model 70 is coming back for 2008. See the details here. Will you buy one?

Are we headed for a recession? And while I'm thinking about it, does anyone in my generation remember what that is?

It's negative economic growth, like a mini-depression. People stop buying stuff because they are worried they won't have money in the future to buy stuff. So, in turn, businesses need to make less stuff. And so they need fewer people to make less stuff. And finally, people lose their jobs, and really don't have any money to buy stuff.

An investment banker in Pittsburgh says he thinks he has two great indicators of whether that scenario is coming. One is Winnebago, the iconic RV maker.

And while I'm saying the word "iconic," you can probably guess what his other canary in the coal mine is. Harley-Davidson.

According to Ron Muhlenkamp, if those two companies start doing poorly, the rest of the economy is headed their way.

The reason? Their products are large purchases that people really don't need. They want, and when people stop buying what they want, that means they are worried about money, he contends.

Harley, if you follow our newspaper, hasn't been doing the best. Especially here in the United States. Anyone worried? Or doesn't Mr. Muhlenkamp's logic make sense?