$159 a barrel by 2030 with 270 million cars in China
As gasoline prices quietly scrolled past $3 a gallon locally this week and a barrel of crude nears $100 there wasn't much to say here at greenmesh, though it's an oozing fissure in the dome of the volcanic energy crisis.
Those in the energy industry who can profit this quarter are not saying much as those who just "need" a 7-liter pickup truck to commute to work from their well heated, over-sized house. Life, aside from accelerating dollars in and out of a pockets, goes on.
The International Energy Agency in it's annual World Energy Outlook has taken a more pessimistic view over previous projections that in the past said pumping trillions of dollars into sucking oil out of the earth could meet global energy needs.
$100,000,000,000 in today's dollars could shift us to Hydrogen according to Peter Schwartz, a former futurist for Shell Oil, who is an investor in two companies developing hydrogen power technologies and Doug Randall, Global Business Network.
With that investment, the nation could shift the balance of power from foreign oil producers to US energy consumers within a decade. By 2013, a third of all new cars sold could be hydrogen-powered, 15 percent of the nation's gas stations could pump hydrogen, and the US could get more than half its energy from domestic sources, putting independence within reach.All that's missing is a national commitment to make it happen. wired.com
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Iraq War Cost
I welcome $3 a gallon for gasoline. These small warning signs dotting the landscape are a wake-up call of what is to come. There is a price at the pump where an informed democracy will force a solution with it's tax dollars; perhaps that number is $4, $5 or $10.
Here are some projections by the IEA:
The staggering pace of Chinese and Indian economic growth in the past few years, outstripping that of all other major countries, has pushed up sharply their energy needs, a growing share of which has to be imported. Free trade means increased standard of living for developing countries. The world’s energy needs would be well over 50% higher in 2030 than today.
Oil demand for transport almost quadruples in China between 2005 and 2030, contributing more than two-thirds of the overall increase in Chinese oil demand. The vehicle fleet expands seven-fold, reaching almost 270 million. New vehicle sales in China exceed those of the United States by around 2015.
China’s primary energy demand is projected to more than double from 1 742 million toe in 2005 to 3 819 Mtoe in 2030 – an average annual rate of growth of 3.2%. China, with four times as many people, overtakes the United States to become the world’s largest energy consumer soon
after 2010 These trends lead to continued growth in energy related emissions of carbon-dioxide (CO2) and to increased reliance of consuming countries on imports of oil and gas – much of them from the Middle East and Russia. Both developments would heighten concerns about climate change and energy security.
Oil remains the single largest fuel, though its share in global demand falls from 35% to 32%. Oil demand reaches 116 million barrels per day in 2030 – 32 mb/d, or 37%, up on 2006. In line with the spectacular growth of the past few years, coal sees the biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, jumping by 73% between 2005 and 2030 and pushing its share of total energy demand up from 25% to 28%. Most of the increase in coal use arises in China and India. The share of natural gas increases more modestly, from 21% to 22%. Electricity use doubles, its share of final energy consumption rising from 17% to 22%. Some $22 trillion of investment in supply infrastructure is needed to meet projected global demand.
Their collective output of conventional crude oil, natural gas liquids and non-conventional oil (mainly gas-to-liquids) is projected to climb from 36 mb/d in 2006 to 46 mb/d in 2015 and 61 mb/d in 2030 in the Reference Scenario. As a result, OPEC’s share of world oil supply jumps from 42% now to 52% by the end of the projection period. Non-OPEC production rises only slowly to 2030, with most of the increase coming from nonconventional sources – mainly Canadian oil sands – as conventional output levels off at around 47 mb/d by the middle of the 2010s.
Thanks for putting up the Iraq war cost widget, Paul. It should be publically displayed on electronic billboards throughout the country. All that money flushed down the toilet while it could have been invested in infinitely more worthy and more beneficial causes.
I truly believe that the Green Age is going to be the next big epoch in human history. Governments that refuse to embrace it will be left in the dust...literally.
Amazing when you see the $$$ flying past on a screen...