Story to watch: Injury bug could cripple Yanks

After the Yankees big spending splurge this off season, fans thought the Yankees were about to buy a pennant.
However, it should be pointed out that this team could be in for some long-term injury trouble.

• Let us take a quick look at Matsui. In his most recent three seasons, Matsui has played in 51,143 and 93 games. He will be 35 this season, so it is unlikely to expect he will be able to equal his former numbers: 25 homers, 100 runs driven in and a .300 batting average.


• In a related note, catcher Jorge Posada is expected to catch on back-to-back days this week for the first time since last season.
  Earlier this year, talk out of camp was that Posada would DH. He's a good complementary player who comes up with clutch hits. But he's going to be 37. How many times did Mike Piazza, Mike Stanley, Gary Carter or Johnny Bench catch at least 90 games during seasons at Posada's age?
  Carter did it twice. Stanley and Piazza did it once. Bench was out of baseball by 35. Of course, Carlton Fisk did it five times. But he's the exception that proves the rule.
  The problem with Posada is there is no one who can replace him in the lineup.


• At best, the Yankees will have Alex Rodriguez play in 125 games. Say what you will about steroids, his numbers have been off the charts. However, when he comes back, there's no telling how he'll react to the boos. And there will be boos.
  
• It's not just the old guys with the creaky joints that should be cause for concern. The two new guys expected to anchor the rotation - A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia - could be in trouble as well. Burnett, has averaged just 21 starts per season during his 10-year career. Two of those seasons were almost completely wiped out because of arm troubles. Then, there is the 3,400 club.
  Research suggests that pitchers who toss more pitches than that during a season are more likely to go on the disabled list the next year. Sabathia (second with 3,912) and Burnett (sixth with 3,650) are high on that list.


• It would be insane to argue that Mariano Rivera isn't dominant. But, as he's aged, his durability has gone down. In each of the past four seasons he has seen his innings pitched drop. In 2005, he tossed 78 2/3 innings. Last season it was 70 2/3. Also, he has not appeared in 70 games since 2006. He's had a slow start to spring. So, combine that with his age, 39, and he could not be the terrifying closer he once was. However, with all the Yankees health concerns, he's probably the least likely to break down.


• And lastly, and probably most shockingly, there's Derek Jeter. Old Mr. Reliable. Mr. November. The problem for Derek is that his productivity has plummeted since 2006
  Take a quick look:
  Season Avg. Slg. OBP. HR RBI Runs SB 2006 .344 .483 .417 14 97 118 34
  2007 .322 .452 .388 12 73 102 15
  2008 .300 .408 .363 11 69 88 11

  
  Now, talk all you want about him being a magical player. He once was. But he's become pretty pedestrian. Among shortstops:
  

• Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Stephen Drew, Miguel Tejada, J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta had higher slugging percentages;
  
• Reyes, Ramirez, Drew, Tejada, Michael Young, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta had more runs scored.
  

So he wasn't even in the top 10 in his position in those categories in 2008.
The thing about Jeter's health is it seems to be nagging injuries that won't keep him out of the lineup, just from producing at the level most New York fans expect him to. So while he doesn't spend time on the disabled list, the trainers must have to keep a watchful eye on the captain.

On paper, the Yankees look like they would be the best team in the American League.
But remember, on paper, the Detroit Tigers looked like they would be just that last season.
The injury bug could be moving East.