Who will win? Angels or Yankees?

The match-up
This is a battle between the American League's two best teams. The New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are well balanced machines that provide solid defense, steady plate discipline, tremendous power and dominant arms. This should make for an entertaining series.

The season series
The teams split the ten game series.

Playoff history
The Angels eliminated the Yankees in the 2002 and 2005 American League Division Series.

The Yankees will win if ...
... Joe Girardi stays out of his players' ways.
... Alex Rodriguez continues to crush the baseball.
.... CC Sabathia does not pitch like he did against the Phillies last year or the Red Sox the year before.
... they can get the ball to Mariano Rivera.
... Johnny Damon can get on base and play for the Yankees similar to how he played against them in 2004.

Key player
Jorge Posada's arm could be the Yankees' Achilles' heel. Posada threw out 28 percent (31 of 80) base stealers this season. That number is comparable to the other catchers in the Championship Series. Carlos Ruiz caught 27 percent of runners, Russel Martin nabbed 31 percent and Mike Napoli snared 22 percent. However, while Martin and Ruiz played in more games, they had fewer runners attempt to swipe bases on them.
In other words, their reputations alone kept speedsters honest.
That's not going to work with Posada.
The Angels stole 143 bases this season and could be champing at the bit to get their legs moving.

The Angels will win if ...
... they get on base and challenge Jorge Posada.
... they they can keep the games close. The Yankees' winning percentage drops almost 70 points in one-run games. The Angels' record improves slightly.
... they can get to AJ Burnett.
... Kendry Morales shows why he was an MVP candidate.

Key player
The Angels were able to eliminate the Red Sox despite a horrible performance from Chone Figgins (.000/.077/.000). If he gets on base at his regular .363 clip, the Yankees could be in trouble. Not only is he a speedster who has stolen 40 bases four times, but he produces runs, scoring more than 110 in a season twice in his career. He doesn't have much pop, but if he slaps a ball into the gaps in Yankee Stadium the slow-footed Yankee corner outfielders could give him the chance to hit a key triple.

The Southpaw predicts
The Yankees and Angels very evenly matched. The Angels, however, have plenty of one thing the Yankees do not: speed. Other than Brett Gardner, the Yankees do not have a burner. Since Gardner will only be used sparingly, the Yankees will only have four players in their lineup who are a consistent threat to steal. The Angels, meanwhile, have five regulars who can create runs with their legs.
There are two other aspects of the game that separate the Angels from the Yankees, managerial excellence.
The first is Mike Scioscia, who is the game's most underrated manager.
That leads us to the final point.
A seven game series is a much different beast than a five game set. One pitcher is less likely to dominate it. However, a deeper bench and bullpen allows for more moves.
When you look at the Yankees bench and compare it to the Angels you see Anaheim has better role players.
Reggie Willits isn't a threat to get on base, but when he's on base he's a threat. So like Gardner he's the perfect pinch runner.
But when the Yankees use Gardner as a pinch runner, they miss him as a pinch-hitter.
The Angels, however, can pull Gary Matthews Jr. or Maicer Izturis off the bench. They can pluck Matthews in any outfield spot or put him up against a tough lefty. Izturis can has speed and gap power and can play short and second if needed.
So when you consider the teams' benches, managers and speed, the advantage surprisingly tilts the Angels' way.
The Southpaw says they win in six.