You know who The Southpaw is picking.
He's picking the Dodgers.
If you believe that you don't know The Southpaw. And he has a bridge to sell you.
Check inside to find out what the Dodgers need to win but why the Phillies will do so.
The match-up
Oh, this is close. Closer than David Letterman and an intern. These two organizations know each other very well. In the last 13 months, there's been drama ("Matt Stairs rips one into the night," and "Victorino leaps. It's Gone. Home run Andre Ethier. And the Dodgers win.") and there's passion (Hiroki Kuroda throwing at Shane Victorino.).
So this should be an entertaining and lively series.
The season series
On the strength of two last at-bat wins, the Dodgers took the series, 4-3.
Playoff history
The Phillies and Dodgers have met to decide the National League pennant on five different occasions. The first instance came on the last day of the 1950 season, when Hall of Famer Robin Roberts pitched 10 dominant innings, Hall of Famer Richie Ashburn gunned down Cal Abrams at the plate and Del Ennis blasted a three run home run.
So there's a strong playoff history between these two teams.
They next time they met would be in the 1977 season, when the Dodgers upset the 101-win Phillies in four games. The rematch in 1978 would also go the Dodgers way in dominant fashion.
The Phillies got revenge in 1983 when they upset a strong Dodgers team before losing to the Baltimore Orioles in the World Series.
Of course, the last time the teams met in the playoffs was last season.
The Dodgers will win if ...
... their defense is strong. Last season's Championship Series might have turned on a Rafael Furcal error. The Phillies will capitalize on any mistakes Los Angeles makes.
... Either Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw or Vicente Padilla step up and dominate.
... Andre Ethier needs to remain Captain Clutch.
... can keep Victorino and Rollins from sparking an offensive outburst.
... Manny Ramirez batters the Phillies' left-handers.
Key player
This one's simple. When Rafeal Furcal gets on base the Dodgers win. Against the Cubs last season, he had a .467 on-base percentage and Los Angeles swept the Fuzzies with ease. Against the Cardinals this year, Furcal had a .500 on-base percentage. Another Dodgers sweep.
However, in between, the Phillies got the best of Furcal, holding him to a .211 on-base percentage in last season's LCS and the Phils won, 4-1.
Furcal's career numbers against the Phillies are below his career averages, but not at a horrific level, so it's doubtful he'll struggle as badly.
The Phillies will win if ...
... Jimmy Rollins gets on base at least one-third of the time.
... any of their top set-up men get hot. Could be Scott Eyre. Could be Ryan Madsen.
... Brad Lidge pitches like it's 2008.
... Jayson Werth forces the Dodgers to pitch to Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.
... Pedro Martinez pitches like he did when he first signed with the Phillies.
Key player
Cole Hamels can set the tone. If he shuts down the Dodgers in Game 1 in Los Angeles, it's going to be hard for the Dodgers to pull out a win. Even if they evened it up in Game 2, the Phillies would have a well-rested Cliff Lee going for Game 3.
However, if the Phillies fall behind going into the second game they could be in, as Ulysses Everett McGill says, "A tight spot."
The Southpaw predicts
The Dodgers have the better bullpen. Much, much better. But the only way that will matter is if the Dodgers hand the bullpen a lead or a tight game. Because the Phillies' starting pitching (Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Pedro Martinez, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ) is better than the Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla) the bullpens might not matter as much.
One key could be what happens if the series is split heading to Philly, where an intense crowd will probably intimidate the Dodgers.
If you couldn't tell by now, the admitedly-biased Southpaw is picking the Phillies in seven.
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