Mike Huckabee’s win in Iowa is misleading: He will not be the candidate to receive the nomination at the Republican National Convention. Despite Huckabee’s victory in Iowa, Mitt Romney will appeal to a wider swath of the Republican constituency, therefore awarding him the nomination.
Huckabee’s fiscal policy (abolishment of IRS, 23% sales tax) and extreme religious conviction will turn off both Republicans and swing voters. Giuliani’s liberal viewpoints on social issues and morality issues concerning his personal life will end his chances at the nomination. Let’s face it: Just because you were an exceptional leader on one of the worst days of American history doesn’t make you qualified to run the country. Fred Thompson has been lagging behind since his late entrance to the race, and his jumbled answers and lack of a clear plan will be the nail in the coffin for his campaign. John McCain, while having a strong foreign policy, has also faltered. His old age doesn’t appeal to first-time voters and he may appear as a leftover from the 2000 election.
Perhaps the most interesting development of the Iowa Caucus was the win by Barack Obama, a black man, in a primarily white and conservative state.
The most important question still remains unclear. Will any Republican be able to beat the Democrat? My concern for the Republicans is that they need to attract two types of voters: Swing voters who are not committed to either party, and the party’s strong Evangelical base. I’m not sure any of the candidates can attract both bases, and that would prove fatal for the Republican bid.
The upcoming New Hampshire primary will make the picture considerably clearer due to the fact that the voters are a bit different than the ones in Iowa, specifically more liberal. Look for victories by Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton.