Crunching the playoff numbers

Here's what the seeding could look like for each classification.

Class AAAA: Currently in the No. 2 spot, William Penn can improve to 50 points ahead of third-seeded Bishop McDevitt if they both win this week. Holding the second spot guarantees the Bearcats home games for the first three rounds of the district tournament, should they advance that far. Wilson has already locked up the No. 1 seed. Central York is in fifth and can pull ahead of William Penn with a victory over the Bearcats, but would be able to climb no more higher than fourth unless McDevitt or Cumberland Valley lose. A loss to William Penn could drop the Panthers out of the top eight and send them on the road for the first round. In fact, Dallastown could move into a tie with Central if the Panthers lose and the Wildcats beat Red Lion and that win over West York could give the Wildcats a push in extra bonus points to move ahead of Central in the standings. Even if Dallastown loses to Red Lion, the Wildcats remain in the postseason. A victory by the Lions will move them into the top 16 because Harrisburg can gain no more than 130 points with a win over Altoona, but Red Lion would hold only a 20 point lead over Harrisburg, so extra bonus points could swing it one way or the other. A loss to Dallastown definitely means the season is over for the Lions.

Class AAA: West York is currently tied for the No. 3 spot, but can move ahead of Cocalico by 50 points with a victory over Littlestown. The No. 1 spot is out of West York's reach and they can only move into No. 2 if they win and Mechanicsburg loses to Red Land. A loss could drop the Bulldogs as low as No. 6, but they won't fall any lower than that. Surprisingly, Kennard-Dale is in the No. 16 spot with a 4-5 record. The bad news is they will gain only 120 points with a win over Susquehannock, so a victory alone might not be enough. If Solanco (4-5) can pull off the upset over Cocalico (8-1), they would move ahead of the Rams, and K-D would need either No. 15 Hershey (4-5) to lose to Gettysburg (3-6) or No. 14 Palmyra (5-4) to lose to Trinity (7-2) to stay in the top 16. It would be impossible for K-D to lose and still remain in the top 16 because the winner of that Gettysburg-Palmyra game would have more points than the Rams.

Class AA: Even though Delone Catholic holds the No. 2 spot after nine weeks of play, No. 3 Wyomissing would pull ahead of the Squires if they come up with a win against Pottsville (3-6), even if Delone beats Hanover (1-9). But, No. 1 Lancaster Catholic has a tough game at Eastern Lebanon County (6-3) this week, so a loss there could keep Delone in the top two anyway. Because Biglerville plays York Suburband, Bermudian Springs will be in the top eight no matter who wins that game. Even if Littestown loses to West York, the Thunderbolts can still get in as long as Biglerville beats York Suburban. Even if the Canners lose to York Suburban, Biglerville still gets in at No. 8 as long as West York beats Littlestown. The Trojans need a victory to get into the top eight. If Littlestown beats West York, the winner of the Biglerville-Suburban game is in and the loser is out.

Remember, these projections are all before extra bonus points. Its possible that something fluky could happen, and a team could make up 50 or 60 points by having many of the opponents it had beaten early in the season comes up with wins in Week 10. But that remains highly unlikely and I don't anticipate any swings of more than 20 or 30 points at the most.

Any thoughts about any of these teams' chances of reaching the postseason? What about once the playoffs start? The comments section is there for you to say your piece.