You've already seen a couple screwballs explain why they think West York (11-1) will win Friday in its District 3 Class AAA semifinal at home against Garden Spot (8-4). If you don't believe them, maybe you'll trust the mathematical formula that calls West York a 12.6-point favorite.
It's called the Born Power Index and it calls itself "an ever changing mathematical evaluation of a team's relative strength against similar competition i.e. a team indexed at 60.0 has been consistently 10 points per game stronger than a team indexed at 50.0 leaning more heavily toward most recent encounters."
There is also a "blowout factor" that apparently "rewards teams for doing well against stronger opponents and discourages running up the score against weaker teams." The website boasts that the index has "tabbed the victor in 79.6 of the nearly 22,000 games" in multiple states during the 2002-03 school year. It would be more encouraging if they had updated numbers, and 79.6 percent isn't exactly a mind-blowingly accurate win percentage, but it's still impressive.
Even though the index is "ever changing," and predictions for future games might change based on performances this week, I still think it's worth the time to check out how the index predicts West York would do against its potential district title game opponents.
For what it's worth, the index has good news for Bulldogs fans. It lists West York as a 9.2-point favorite against Mechanicsburg and a 7.8-point favorite against Manheim Central.
How seriously should we take these predictions? Has the BCS destroyed your faith in the value of computer analysis. Utilize the comments section and let your voice be heard.
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